Game Analysis by a Trader: January 2016

Sunday, 17 January 2016

Barcelona and Bayern M. - The modern football

I didn´t do anything in this game. The odd was too low and Barcelona decided the game early. However, I watched the game as it is always a pleasure to see them play.

I have been paying particular attention to the three men in the midfield (thankfully Luis Enrique already left the idea of putting Sergi Roberto at right back!).
In this game, Barcelona abdicated of the common aggressive, physically powerful and game destroyer defensive midfielder (although I think Busquets is much more than that), and choose three creative midfielders: very strong on the offensive organization (creativity, decision and technique) and very smart on the defensive organization (positioning, concentration and anticipation).
These attributes are for me the most important of modern football midfielders. This is why so many English teams always have great difficulty in Europe competitions.

In my opinion, this is one of Klopp Liverpool's problems. Coutinho is the only player who fits these characteristics, which the coach gives great importance. This paradigm shift also occurs increasingly at Arsenal, although the team continues with consistency problems.

The question that remains is for the future of football. Are these the characteristics that also the center backs should have in the future? Should the center back do more than just destroy the game and defend? Should they give the team more solutions in the initial phase of construction?
Have Guardiola given in this game a little insight into how the teams will look like 10/20 years from now?

Here we shall see :)

Wednesday, 6 January 2016

Game: Napoli vs Torino

Napoli has also been a good surprise this season. Left the annoying game of Benitez and hired this new coach (Maurizio Sarri) who perfected the defensive organization of the team and put them playing high-quality football.
In the midfield, I expected the three regular players: Jorginho, Allan and Hamsik, but the coach has chosen other two players who I never saw playing. Yet the main parts of the team were present so I figured it could make a good game.

Few minutes in the game and I was already backing Napoli. The team was playing a high-pressure football and Torino was reduced to their defensive midfield. The clear scoring opportunities succeeded one after the other, it was a matter of time before the goal arrived. This game is a perfect example of when you should back a team. At the 16th minute, Insigne scores a tremendous goal and I closed my position in profit.

If you haven´t watched the game, be sure to review the first few minutes until the goal of Napoli and see the spectacular offensive organization of the team in the first phase of construction. It is phenomenal.

Sunday, 3 January 2016

Favorite teams to back this season

Honestly, this has not been an easy season to take positions in favor of the teams. We can start with the Premier League which has been very competitive, with smaller clubs playing very well. The main contenders for the title playing poorly, bad football quality, with few ideas and great insecurity.
This includes Chelsea, Man. Utd, Man. City and Liverpool, being the last two slightly better than the previous.
In other championships, I also highlight Real Madrid and Benfica complete disorganization of the team. Two teams who last season were playing quality football.

So this season comes down to the following teams:

Sevilha (at home):
I had placed a game of this team which I explained my particular taste for them. Season after season has been always a safe team with prices/odds very good and fairly easy to analyze.

Atl. Madrid:
Always reliable, although more at home than away. A team that when is playing well is very easy to back because of its defensive solidity and quick pressure on the ball.

Fiorentina:
This season's surprise. I quite like the work of Paulo Sousa putting this team playing as a "big club". Very attractive possession football which makes it quite easy to back the team when they are well in the game.

Arsenal:
Team with fantastic players but with many ups and downs. Arsenal for me has a very good characteristic: I realize with relative ease when they are near the goal and when they simply do not play anything. So it is included here in my favorite teams to analyze.

Bayern under Pep Guardiola

Recently I wrote a post about the factors that influence my decision-making during a football game. Contrary to what is believed, Bayern is not always an easy team to back. It is very easy to accumulate losses hoping that the goal appears. Their odds are so low that is, even more, difficult to choose the fair odd to back.

I had referred three points of high importance to back a team. However, in the particular case of Bayern Munich I do not pay attention to points 2 and 3 (see this post).
I do not give importance because these two points are part of the playstyle of this team and their coach. They are verified in every game, even if the team is not playing well, which can lead to a hasty decision.
For those who want to read more about Pep's playstyle there is an excellent article in spielverlagerung.com.

I took this picture of the site whoscored to show the characteristics of this team, with which I completely agree. The fact that Bayern plays with high lines makes the defense gets a little exposed when opposing teams that can pass their first phase of pressure with ease. And often it has to be the "fireman" Neuer to cut the ball almost like a Libero.

Therefore, the two factors that I consider the most important to back this team are:
- The team creates danger on the opponent's area with several clear opportunities to score;
- The team prevents the opponent to organize attacks and to create clear chances to score.

Saturday, 2 January 2016

Game: Atl. Madrid vs Levante

Atl. Madrid, one of my favorite teams. Their defensive solidity makes it so easy and safe to back them.
Looking at the starting 11 only one significant change, A. Correa instead of Carrasco, the later which has been good in late games. Still a safe initial eleven, with a strong midfield and intelligent players which this last is very important in modern football.
Frankly, a very weak opponent who I don´t think has the capability to avoid relegation.

The Atl. Madrid team begin as it normally does, with pressure on the ball, very strong on set pieces to create scoring opportunities. This team gives me enough confidence, so 6 minutes into the game I back Atl. Madrid. at 1.25.
Atl. continued to be the better team but slowed down a bit the pace of play around the 20th minute which made me close the position around 1.27 and wait for a more fair odd.
I waited for a better price and Atl. Madrid to create scoring opportunities again. I backed the team some minutes later at 1.32/1.33.

Unfortunately Atl. Madrid failed to reach the goal and I closed my bet at half-time with some loss, around 4/5% of my responsibility.

Game: Arsenal vs Newcastle

An Arsenal with many injuries. Still a good team that will play. Personally, I like when Cazorla plays Deep-Lying playmaker with Ramsey dropping more to the right because this gives more consistency to the midfield defensive organization than with two wingers as Walcott and Oxlade. Also, because Ozil does not seem to do these tasks. But I understand that right now there's no player with the characteristics of Cazorla.

Arsenal started well in the game with high pressure and a clear chance to score. Also there seemed to be plenty of space to play near the Newcastle area.
At that time the odd was 1.25. At a higher price maybe I had entered, but with a price so low I preferred to wait a little longer. For me to get such a low odd I must have a clear certainty that the team will score at any time.

Fortunately, I was correct not to enter. After the 12/15 minutes of the match, Arsenal's good start is over and Newcastle became the only team to search the goal with some real opportunities.
Although Newcastle was better, it is not a team that gives me the confidence to go for, so I ended up not taking any position.
To point out that even if he had entered in favor of Arsenal I would have come out at 12/15 minutes even though it was necessary to take a small loss.

Friday, 1 January 2016

Factors that influence the back or lay decision

My first few minutes of a game are always for analysis. I never enter a game with a fixed position or a fixed idea of what I will do. I always wait for the opportunities.
Sometimes the goal appears early in the game or in the first attack of the team and there goes our chance, but I consider this analysis more favorable in the long run.

Before backing or laying a team the factors that i have into account, sorted by relevance, are:

- The team that is playing better creates danger on the opponent's area with clear opportunities to score (high importance);

- The team that is playing better is able to predict most of the moves and opponent's reactions, imposing high pressure, pressure over the ball and still imposing the game pace (high importance);

- The team that is playing better have a high quality of play and hit passes with fast progression in the field towards the opponent's area (high importance);

- Statistics is favorable to this team, more chances to score, more shots and high ball possession (average size);

- The team that is playing worse is unable to organize attacks and to create goal oportunities (average size);

- The team that is paying better comes from a positive series of games and is moralized (low importance);

- The odd of the team that is paying better is "stagnant/standing" and does not appear to devalue in the next minutes (low importance);

- The team that is paying better is playing at home (low importance).

For now these are the factors that i remember. Not to say that during the game, I assign relevance to all the factors described above to take a stand. There are teams that I know quite well and they give me more security allowing me to disregard some of them. However, there are also teams that are an exception to the rule like Bayern under the leadership of Pep Guardiola to which I do not give much importance to some of the points I scored with high importance because they are part of this team style of play.

Then I will make a post talking about this team.

Game: Sevilha - Espanyol

Sevilla is a team that i know relatively well and that usually give me enough joys (€€€!) when playing in their own stadium. Fairly organized set, high pressure, strong transitions and creates scoring opportunities with relative ease.

Before the game starts i gave a quick view of the teams in flashscores. In tactical terms the Sevilla 4-2-3-1 against another 4-2-3-1 does not make me anticipate a possible tactical superiority. In the Sevilla side i noticed Cristoforo next to Iborra, a player that i honestly do not know. I would rather have N'Zonzi or Krohn-Dehli playing this position.
Immobile instead of Kevin Gameiro in the attack, which for me has not a negative impact on the team. So in terms of the starting eleven i was comfortable.

Not surprisingly at home, Sevilla started well winning most of the balls, having good circulation and creating clear situations of goal.
After two clear situations of goal, around the 10th minute, I decided to back Sevilha at a price/odd around 1.51. A few minutes later, Immobile decides to open the score and i close my bet in profit.

Introduction

Hi,

First of all welcome to Game Analysis by a Trader.

I am a football fan, trader at football markets in the free time and lately, I've become a fan of tactical analysis in an attempt to improve my decisions in backing or laying a team.

With the blog, i intend to share what led me to back or lay a team, which was my analysis at some point of the game and the reason of the decision.I can still share some ideas or information i have read in other blogs that led me to take some positions.

I do not intend to share all the games that i do, only those i think that add value.I do not intend to talk about the technical aspects of trading, which i also do, because there are already very good blogs and pages on this topic.

I do not have any degree in sports and i don´t daily work with any football club, so you should not expect the information to be placed is an absolute true or professional.

They are just my ideas and opinions and you are welcome to discuss them.

Sunday, 17 January 2016

Wednesday, 6 January 2016

Sunday, 3 January 2016

Saturday, 2 January 2016

Friday, 1 January 2016

Let's go then!