My first few minutes of a game are always for analysis. I never enter a game with a fixed position or a fixed idea of what I will do. I always wait for the opportunities.
Sometimes the goal appears early in the game or in the first attack of the team and there goes our chance, but I consider this analysis more favorable in the long run.
Before backing or laying a team the factors that i have into account, sorted by relevance, are:
- The team that is playing better creates danger on the opponent's area with clear opportunities to score (high importance);
- The team that is playing better is able to predict most of the moves and opponent's reactions, imposing high pressure, pressure over the ball and still imposing the game pace (high importance);
- The team that is playing better have a high quality of play and hit passes with fast progression in the field towards the opponent's area (high importance);
- Statistics is favorable to this team, more chances to score, more shots and high ball possession (average size);
- The team that is playing worse is unable to organize attacks and to create goal oportunities (average size);
- The team that is paying better comes from a positive series of games and is moralized (low importance);
- The odd of the team that is paying better is "stagnant/standing" and does not appear to devalue in the next minutes (low importance);
- The team that is paying better is playing at home (low importance).
For now these are the factors that i remember. Not to say that during the game, I assign relevance to all the factors described above to take a stand. There are teams that I know quite well and they give me more security allowing me to disregard some of them. However, there are also teams that are an exception to the rule like Bayern under the leadership of Pep Guardiola to which I do not give much importance to some of the points I scored with high importance because they are part of this team style of play.
Then I will make a post talking about this team.
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