It's was a surprise for me to see that Bayern was going to play this game with the first team. I guess Guardiola is really looking to get the "Treble" before his departure.
I was expecting an easy game for Bayern but a few minutes watching the game and my opinion changed.
In January, I wrote a post about what to look for when trading a Bayern game. So for me to bet (back) Guardiola's team this two point had to occur:
- The team creates danger in the opponent's area with several clear opportunities to score;
- The team prevents the opponent to organize attacks and to create clear chances to score.
Today it was the opposite of that. Bayern was playing a boring game with no ideas and no real chances to score, unlike Bochum that was playing very well in the counter-attack.
Thus, I accepted a great odd of 1.17 against Bayern.
Unfortunately for me, Bayern did score and I closed my bet with a loss around 7.5% of my stake. Before Bayern's goal, I was profiting around 14% of my stake.
So it was a bad trade? Let's do the maths:
1 - Bayern takes advantage: I lose 7.5% of my stake;
2 - I choose close my bet at half-time or whatever I think that Bayern is playing well: I profit at least 14% of my stake (worst case scenario), around 16.4% at half-time;
3 - Bayern conceded a goal: I profit, in the worst case scenario, 31% of my stake.
In my opinion, option 2 and 3 were the most likely to occur so I guess it was a good trade.
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