Game Analysis by a Trader: February 2016

Saturday, 27 February 2016

Game: Wolfsburg vs Bayern M.

Looking at Wolfsburg my first impression was of a really defensive first team. Makes me miss the last season great team.
So, Marcel Schafer, a defensive player playing as left winger or something like it. Usually, it doesn´t go well when the coach changes the team ideas "inventing" with the tactics.
So my pré-live idea was that Bayern would dominate the game as the home team were not shaped to do much danger.

As I already explained in a previous post, I look at very specific points when trading Bayern Munich. This game was a perfect example of when I bet on them.
Bayern started with high lines, possession as normal, but the difference here were two things:
1 - The ball was easily reaching the wingers and they were with lots of space to face the defender and make crossings. This is very dangerous because Bayern usually puts a lot of players in the area.
2- The passes were entering very well in behind Wolfsburg defence.

Because of this Bayern created several opportunities to score and early in the game I bet at an odd around 1.43.
I guessed it was a matter of time before the goal appears but all was against, even the crossbar was in their way.
Later in the first half, Wolfsburg started to create chances to score. It was a surprise to me that with so few offensive players they could do it but the danger was clear so I close my bet with some loss, around 2%.

I didn´t put more bets in this game I just watched the second half. It's a shame Ribery was injured some much time because it is clear that the team define much better the attacks when he is on the field.

Sunday, 14 February 2016

Game: Arsenal vs Leicester

Today's first big game. Arsenal playing with a good first team, not my favourite but still good. Leicester at full strength.
I was expecting a possession football from Arsenal and a Leicester playing in the counter-attack as normal.

My trading positions in this game were dependent if Leicester would be capable of creating scoring chances and Arsenal ability to avoid it and to impose their game on the opposition's half.

Arsenal started well, creating goal opportunities pushing Leicester into their half. So I took a price around 1.68 for Arsenal.
I guess it was very important for the home team to score early in the game because it was the best position to manage the game against a team with the characteristics of Leicester (Wenger must have seen their game against Man. City :))

At the 16th minute, Jamie Vardy almost scored and Arsenal was starting to slow down the pace so I started closing my positions in their favor.
In the next minutes, the game begins to be more favourable for Leicester counters as they seem to have shut down the imposing game of Arsenal.
Thus, I started betting against Arsenal. Close to half-time Vardy scored and I closed my bet in profit.
Now Arsenal had put themselves in the worst possible situation against a team like Leicester.

But...more was to come. Again, Arsenal started very well in the 2nd half so I bet again in Arsenal around 4.8. I was not going to take a long position because the price would devalue minutes later in the game. I was just looking for Arsenal's goal early in the 2nd half.
The goal doesn´t appear but the red card for Danny Simpson did. The price of Arsenal got down a lot so now I had plenty of time to get a goal from the home team before closing my bet with no loss.
The draw came in around the 70th minute but I was not complete satisfied so I just partially closed my bet leaving more money in Arsenal's win.

From here it was a massacre from Arsenal. I had to wait until the last second but the profit was worth the risk.

Wednesday, 10 February 2016

Game: Bochum vs Bayern Munich

It's was a surprise for me to see that Bayern was going to play this game with the first team. I guess Guardiola is really looking to get the "Treble" before his departure.
I was expecting an easy game for Bayern but a few minutes watching the game and my opinion changed.

In January, I wrote a post about what to look for when trading a Bayern game. So for me to bet (back) Guardiola's team this two point had to occur:
- The team creates danger in the opponent's area with several clear opportunities to score;
- The team prevents the opponent to organize attacks and to create clear chances to score.

Today it was the opposite of that. Bayern was playing a boring game with no ideas and no real chances to score, unlike Bochum that was playing very well in the counter-attack.
Thus, I accepted a great odd of 1.17 against Bayern.

Unfortunately for me, Bayern did score and I closed my bet with a loss around 7.5% of my stake. Before Bayern's goal, I was profiting around 14% of my stake.

So it was a bad trade? Let's do the maths:
1 - Bayern takes advantage: I lose 7.5% of my stake;
2 - I choose close my bet at half-time or whatever I think that Bayern is playing well: I profit at least 14% of my stake (worst case scenario), around 16.4% at half-time;
3 - Bayern conceded a goal: I profit, in the worst case scenario, 31% of my stake.

In my opinion, option 2 and 3 were the most likely to occur so I guess it was a good trade.

Monday, 8 February 2016

Man. City of Pep Guardiola (Preview)

One of the major topics of the moment in England. Frankly, I think next season we will have a fantastic Premier League if we have Guardiola and Klopp, Mourinho at Man. Utd. and another great coach at Chelsea (Diego Simeone or Antonio Conte are my preference).

Contrary to what I've read out there, I do not think the squad will suffer a revolution. I believe the changes will be in the defensive midfield/first phase of construction.
Since Guardiola's time at Barcelona that we know that the coach is not a fan of Yaya Toure's characteristics, so it is almost certain his departure. The remaining players Fernando, Fernandinho and Delph do not have the characteristics (creativity, decision and technique) to be successful in Pep's team ideas.

For me, the biggest headache will be getting a "Xabi Alonso/Busquets" to act as a defensive midfielder. I do not see any player in the short term that can satisfy all the coach's ideas (perhaps Julian Weigl of Dortmund in 1 or 2 years). Perhaps Marchisio would be a good idea but I do not think Juventus will give up the player.

Then a good deep-lying playmaker (or two) will also be very difficult to get because the best are already in big teams and they will not let them leave.
I'm talking about players like Iniesta, Modric, Isco (Zidane, thank you for not letting Isco in the bench), Thiago Alcântara.
In the long term: Sergi Roberto and Dele Alli.

I am really curious to see the squad next season because the market is increasingly competitive and I think it will be very difficult for Guardiola to put together a team in his own image in only one transfer window.

Regarding the attack front, I think the players that will improve a lot with Guardiola's coming will be Sterling and Agüero.

Sunday, 7 February 2016

Game: Chelsea vs Man. Utd.

The big game of the journey.
Looking at Chelsea side, I really don´t like seeing Mikel alongside Matic. It's against modern football playing with two players with low creativity, low technique in the first phase of construction.
I understand that Fabregas has a bad positioning in the defensive organization and this is more exposed with bigger teams but I don´t think this is the better solution.

Looking at Man. Utd. side, I would prefer Herrera instead of Mata. Nowadays it's difficult to play with a player with his characteristics without sacrificing a winger. I guess it was one of the reasons Mourinho didn´t need him at Chelsea.

Forward into the game, Man. Utd started well, imposing the game pace and playing in the Chelsea defensive midfield so I started betting against the blues.
At the 22/23th minute Man. Utd. slowed the pressure (maybe because they reached their average 3 shots per game and don´t want to screw that up, ehehe) and Chelsea "entered" the game, creating some scoring opportunities.

At this time, I was already profiting around 20% of my bet, so I closed it. From here the game was more balanced so I didn´t place more bets.
I was glad the final result wasn´t 0-0, this season we have assisted at a lot of boring games between the bigger teams.

Games: Napoli & Juventus

Two good games today at the same time. Sometimes, when the games do not seem difficult to analyze, I work both at the same time.
Departing for these games I thought the firsts against the last places would be easy money for me. It's the two best firepowers in Serie A.

As always, I let the games begin. Naturally Napoli and Juventus began dominating and quickly I accepted the odds of each team.
Time passed, the chances succeeded up one after another, as can be seen in the statistics of the first half, but unfortunately for me, the goal did not appear in any games.

At half-time, I close my bet with a loss between 8-10% in each game.
The teams went on to win with goals to appear only after 70 minutes but this is not a good time to back a team because each minute carries high losses.

There are days when the goal insists not enter :)

Tuesday, 2 February 2016

Game: Napoli vs Empoli

Again a Napoli game! I try to work all the games of this team because they play a so fantastic football that is so easy to bet on them.
In this game, the team was at full strength so it gives me even more confidence. The flashscores site points to a 4-2-3-1 although it is more a 4-3-3 as in most games.

I chose this game on purpose. Napoli, as usual, went strong to create chances so I quickly went in their favor at a price of 1.36 / 1.37.
Around the 26/27 minute, I predicted that the price of Napoli would devalue in the next few minutes so I left the market to then get at a better price.
Luckily (also, the opposite happens sometimes ), the goal of Empoli appeared at that time.

I decided to analyse the game again. Napoli continued to create several goal opportunities and at this time, I had a strong conviction that the home side was dominating the game. It was a matter of time before the goals appear.
After the draw, I saw a good opportunity to enter in the Napoli market at a good price.

Moments later it was the 2-1 and I closed my bet in profit.
Note that even if I had been subject to the goal of Empoli, I would keep calm and then I would have reduced the loss (or even clean) doing a new game analysis.
The loss is part of trading. The most important thing is to have more success analysis than failure analysis.

About me

I am a football fan, trader at football markets in the free time and lately, I've become a fan of tactical analysis in an attempt to improve my decisions in backing or laying a team.