Euro 2016: Hungary vs Belgium

Hungary: One of the surprises in this Euro 2016. They play good football and seem to quite easily score goals  due to having multiple players with a good shot.
Belgium: As was already mentioned in other blog posts I think the coach did well to take Fellaini out of the team and add creativity to the center and speed in the wings.

I do not expect an easy victory by Belgium and I even believed that Hungary could make a surprise in this game.

In my opinion, Belgium entered very well in the game creating goal opportunities. As Hungary is not a strong team doing the "Park the Bus" there was too much space for the Belgians to play.

Few minutes from the start of the game and I started to bet in favor of Belgium.
I was still putting money on the market and Toby scores the goal. I closed my bet with a profit of around 35%.

Finally, an "easy game" to catch the goal :)

Euro 2016: France & Germany

Today a post slightly different due to the lack of possibilities for game analysis entries because of earlier goals in the games.

France vs Ireland: Ireland scored very early, and France was almost the entire first half sleeping. I do not consider the best time to make long entries based on game analysis, when is a favorite team losing, because the price tends to devalue very fast.

Germany vs Slovakia: Wanted to wait a bit and confirm the superiority of Germany with goal opportunities. Did not go well, the Germans scored relatively early. I had the money to go after the corner that gave the goal Boateng,

Not a very profitable Euro for me in this kind of entries, the goals or arrive early or tend to not appear.
It could be worse if I was not profiting :)

Euro 2016: Northern Ireland vs Germany

Little or nothing to say. Germany together with Spain is quite ahead of other teams, both tactically and collectively.
Any team out of the top teams can hardly defeat Germany.

As soon as the game started I realized the supremacy of Germany and began to bet in favor of them. It was a matter of time before the goal appears.
The supremacy of Germany was so remarkable that Toni Kroos alone completed more passes than all Northern Ireland players together. The Germans ended up with 79% of ball possession!

Not that it was needed but I also leave the graph of the BN formula to demonstrate the analysis.
I closed my bet after the goal with a profit around 20% of the amount risked.

Euro 2016: Slovakia vs England

England: In front of the defense the only player that I would change is Vardy by Rooney. For me, this was the lineup and strongest England team. For this, and perhaps unlike the rest of the people, I had confidence that this would be a game well done by the British.
Slovakia: A good surprise in this competition with a quality football and a Hamsik in a huge form playing like a Slovenian "Iniesta".

I saw the first two games of Slovakia and as mentioned above they had a quality football so I expect a difficult game to analyze.

I've been watching the game for 12 minutes. At that point, the British team had already created some goal opportunities and seemed to have the control of the game. As I predicted this England midfield seems to work much better than the last. I bet in favor of England in an odd around 1.8.
I removed the bet sometimes between the 20 and 32 minute as England seemed no longer to be so good during that period, as it could be confirmed by BetNoty graph stagnation.

From the 32nd minute, England improved again and I kept my bet until halftime.
Although the British had dominated the game from there, as can be seen in the graph (print at halftime), the goal did not come.

As the odd did not devalue, because of the supremacy of the British in the first half, I closed my bet at halftime without any loss

Euro 2016: Belgium vs Ireland

Belgium: In this game Belgium's coach opted for what I have beeing telling here on the blog. Against inferior teams, you can abdicate of a midfield player for a more creative/offensive one. Totally agree with the placement of the defensive midfielder Dembele and Witsel at position 8 with De Bruyne in the middle and Carrasco as a winger.
Ireland: I don´t know well the team, I know that they will choose to defend deep and try to play on the counterattack.

Belgium took long to convince me. Only around the 15th minute I began to bet in favor of the Belgians on an odd of 1.89. My confidence was not much and I did not think that Belgium was creating many opportunities but I consider these three factors:
1 - Ireland did not create danger in the area of ​​Belgium;
2 - In my opinion, the odd of Belgium was too high.
3 - Belgium has players who can reach the goal of nowhere, with an individual move or a moment of inspiration (Hazard and De Bruyne mostly).

To my misfortune, I closed my bet at the break with a loss of around 4.3%. Misfortune since Belgium opened the scoring early in the 2nd half.

Euro 2016: Spain vs Turkey

Spain: All normal without any casualties. Against Turkey, it can justify two-game organizers. To highlight the huge form of Iniesta!
Turkey: Some good individuals but sincerely little collective game. After the game with Croatia seemed to me that is a team with little potential to qualify.

Given the weak performance of Turkey and the momentum of Spain, especially the good form of Iniesta, I expect a natural victory of Spain.

Spain came in strong and after 10 minutes had already sufficient indicators for me to bet in favor of Spain. Although there was a period where the Spanish lowered the pace of the game I kept my bet until the goal of Morata at the 34th minute.

I closed the bet with profit around 28%.

Finally, I caught my first goal based on game analysis in this Euro, which began very "warm" but now seems to be improving.

Euro 2016: Spain vs Czech Republic

Spain: Lineup inside normal. Spain seems to play a little below normal. As I mentioned in France game I think that Spain against weaker teams, who tend to defend behind the midfield line, could give up one of the men in the midfield (Busquets takes them all!). In this case, my choice could be to leave David Silva free in the middle and exchange Fàbregas by Pedro to play on one of the wings.

Czech Republic: I do not know many of the players. I know it's one of the teams with older players and with few stars to make a good Euro.

Having said that I expected a natural victory of Spain.

The Czech Republic entered the game strong which was good because it made the odd Spain adjust for a better price.

By the time that Spain started to dominate the game, around the 20th minute, I bet in favor of them until around 60 minutes into the game. Spain supremacy was clear as we can see in BetNoty.

Yet was not this time that I profited. I closed my bet with a loss of around 5% around the 60th minute.

Euro 2016: Poland vs Nothern Ireland

Poland: Lineup inside normal, faithful to his system and aware of their capabilities. Overall a good team that captured the attention of qualifying stages for having the best record of goals scored.
Northern Ireland: I do not know most of their players, in my opinion, a team still far from able to compete with the other teams in the competition. One of the underdogs in my opinion.
I think that an odd of 1.8 for Poland is too high.

As I expected, 5 minutes into the game and Poland have already confirmed their supremacy. I passed all of the first half betting in favour of Poland.
North Ireland did not make a shot during the first 45 minutes. The BetNoty chart below can confirm the supremacy of Poland.

Unfortunately, Poland did not manage to score and I closed my bet at half time with a loss of around 2,44%. A small loss because the Poland's odd did not deviate much from the initial price due to the inefficiency of the Northern Ireland team.

Euro 2016: England vs Russia

Although Russia is the main opponent of England, this was a game that I believed the victory of the English team would come up with ease. However looking at the starting eleven and the positions of the players I had doubts that a 4-3-3 will work best for England. This team is not used to play with this system, much less with Rooney in "8" position. The only player called that for me could do this position was Wilshere who probably is still far from his best.

England came strong in the game and although their football does not convince me I bet on them at around 11/12 minutes. Who helped this decision was more Russia than the English team. Russia defences gave a huge space in front of them and the team almost abdicated to attack.

Another favourable indicator was the BN formula of BetNoty that was almost 20 at the 12th minute, as I show in the image below.

Unfortunately, the goal did not come until the interval, a little due to the lack of England ideas than the merit of Russia team. I closed my bet at half time with no loss. Russia practically has abdicated to attack in the first half what caused the odd of England to not deviate much from the original price.

In my opinion, it would be worthwhile to consider another game system for England because I do not believe that this 4-3-3 can lead them very far in the competition.

Euro 2016: France vs Romania

Before the game, a took I look at the initial teams and France looked to me the best possible team to this game.
My idea started to change as the game begins. The France midfielders are with no doubt very strong relating to aerial and individual duels but it is, in my opinion, a good midfield to play against stronger international teams.
What happened in the first half was that France had a lot of problems in the first phase of construction. It was notable some disorganisation and few ideas to reach the opponent's area for neither Kante or Matuidi or Pogba are very creative players (Not wanting to take merit to the good defensive organization that Romania has shown).

The only time that France managed to reach the opponent's goal was through Payet.
In my opinion, against inferior teams, France may give up one of the men in the midfield in order to bring more creativity to the team. My options would be to change Matuidi for a player like Cabaye, or step back Payet and put Coman or Martial as a winger.

Because of what I explained above, France never gave me the confidence to bet in favour of them. During the first part I might even decide to bet against France, but in these tournaments, I prefer not to risk too much in the first games. I like to see the group stage first to realise the form of each team and then in later stages I can think of more risky bets.

Honestly, I was a little disappointed with France, I think if they do not improve they will hardly manage to win the Euro 2016.

Trading Live using BetNoty

Lately, I've been using a software, that goes by the name of BetNoty, to help me analyse the football live match and support my bet decisions.
Sometimes I even use it to do blind trading (no game images).
I'm gonna use the Europa League final as example.

I was expecting a stronger midfield from Liverpool team and not two forwards. Although Sevilla is not very well this season their team is very solid and very good in counter-attack so I wasn´t expecting that Liverpool could sustain Sevilla's counters with just Can and Milner as we would see later in the second half.

"Formula BN" is, in my opinion, the best tool of BetNoty. It represents what's happening in the game and what team is better playing. In my experience using it, a BN minimum value of 10 it's a good indicator to bet on a team. Around minute 28th my game analysis was in favour of Liverpool and as you can see in the graph the BN value was above 10 (around 13) so I backed Liverpool.
Minutes later I profited with Sturridge goal. The image was by the half-time and as you can see the BN value was 33.75 wich indicates a lot of supremacy from Liverpool.

Second half followed.

Sevilla entered very strong in the second half. After 10 minutes, as you can see in the image the BN value decreases a lot, 33,75 to 18.25, a moment before the Sevilla's goal. During that period, I bet in Draw market using my game analysis combined with BetNoty's indication.
After Sevilla's goal, I closed my bet in profit.
Another way of viewing a team supremacy in that moment of the game is to filter for the values of the last 10 minutes as I show in the image below.

This filter is very useful to preview if the price will devalue in the next moments too. For example, now Sevilla has a BN value of 14,75, so another choice instead of betting in the draw or in Sevilla could be trading the Liverpool's market taking advantage of the devalue of their price/odd (when it was 1-1).

Of course, the BN value is not always right when it comes to bet on a team because we're talking about football and everything can happen, but sure is a great complement to match live analysis.
The rest of the software is really good to punters and live swing-traders having a lot of filters and good tools to help choose the best bets.

Game: Tottenham vs Arsenal

The team that plays the best football in Premier League against the one who used to play. Don´t know what's going on with Arsenal but it hasn´t  been the same team in the last few games. I understand their defensive position against Barcelona, but not in Old Trafford.
The team has abdicated of their possession and offensive football which lies deep in the team ideas. This was a great opportunity for Arsenal to be champions but their attitude doesn't demonstrate the will.
Is Wenger trying to imitate Mourinho last end of the season approach? :)

Tottenham started very well playing "like a champion".  The team dominated Arsenal in their half. The ball recovery was so fast and efficient that Arsenal can not even fight back in the counter-attack.
After some goal opportunities, I started betting in Tottenham around 2.32.

For the next 35 minutes, Tottenham created a lot of opportunities to score. During the time of 35' to 39', I was evaluating closing my bet because Tottenham was reducing the game pace which could lead to better counter-attacks from Arsenal. But unfortunately for me, I wasn´t fast enough and Ramsey did score (my condolences to the next celebrity :)).
It wasn´t fair for Tottenham and for me but I had to close my bet with a loss around 55% of my responsibility.

I sit back and watched the game. At the 55th minute, Coquelin receives the red card and I get a good price when the market reopens at 4.9.
I was a good price because then it went to 4.4/4.5 so I had some time until my bet devalues.
Tottenham reacted very well to the red card and the price lowered even more so I was comfortable. Fortunately, for me, I didn´t have to wait much time for the draw.

After Tottenham's goal, I closed my bet and reduced my loss from 55% to 19%.
You can say that I should have waited a little more for Kane's goal but at that time the price would devalue fast and in the long run, I don´t think it would happen two goals so fast so often in a game.

Tottenham is not one of my favorites teams to bet because despite their great football they start in disadvantage many times which leads to early bet losses.

Game: Wolfsburg vs Bayern M.

Looking at Wolfsburg my first impression was of a really defensive first team. Makes me miss the last season great team.
So, Marcel Schafer, a defensive player playing as left winger or something like it. Usually, it doesn´t go well when the coach changes the team ideas "inventing" with the tactics.
So my pré-live idea was that Bayern would dominate the game as the home team were not shaped to do much danger.

As I already explained in a previous post, I look at very specific points when trading Bayern Munich. This game was a perfect example of when I bet on them.
Bayern started with high lines, possession as normal, but the difference here were two things:
1 - The ball was easily reaching the wingers and they were with lots of space to face the defender and make crossings. This is very dangerous because Bayern usually puts a lot of players in the area.
2- The passes were entering very well in behind Wolfsburg defence.

Because of this Bayern created several opportunities to score and early in the game I bet at an odd around 1.43.
I guessed it was a matter of time before the goal appears but all was against, even the crossbar was in their way.
Later in the first half, Wolfsburg started to create chances to score. It was a surprise to me that with so few offensive players they could do it but the danger was clear so I close my bet with some loss, around 2%.

I didn´t put more bets in this game I just watched the second half. It's a shame Ribery was injured some much time because it is clear that the team define much better the attacks when he is on the field.

Game: Arsenal vs Leicester

Today's first big game. Arsenal playing with a good first team, not my favourite but still good. Leicester at full strength.
I was expecting a possession football from Arsenal and a Leicester playing in the counter-attack as normal.

My trading positions in this game were dependent if Leicester would be capable of creating scoring chances and Arsenal ability to avoid it and to impose their game on the opposition's half.

Arsenal started well, creating goal opportunities pushing Leicester into their half. So I took a price around 1.68 for Arsenal.
I guess it was very important for the home team to score early in the game because it was the best position to manage the game against a team with the characteristics of Leicester (Wenger must have seen their game against Man. City :))

At the 16th minute, Jamie Vardy almost scored and Arsenal was starting to slow down the pace so I started closing my positions in their favor.
In the next minutes, the game begins to be more favourable for Leicester counters as they seem to have shut down the imposing game of Arsenal.
Thus, I started betting against Arsenal. Close to half-time Vardy scored and I closed my bet in profit.
Now Arsenal had put themselves in the worst possible situation against a team like Leicester.

But...more was to come. Again, Arsenal started very well in the 2nd half so I bet again in Arsenal around 4.8. I was not going to take a long position because the price would devalue minutes later in the game. I was just looking for Arsenal's goal early in the 2nd half.
The goal doesn´t appear but the red card for Danny Simpson did. The price of Arsenal got down a lot so now I had plenty of time to get a goal from the home team before closing my bet with no loss.
The draw came in around the 70th minute but I was not complete satisfied so I just partially closed my bet leaving more money in Arsenal's win.

From here it was a massacre from Arsenal. I had to wait until the last second but the profit was worth the risk.

Game: Bochum vs Bayern Munich

It's was a surprise for me to see that Bayern was going to play this game with the first team. I guess Guardiola is really looking to get the "Treble" before his departure.
I was expecting an easy game for Bayern but a few minutes watching the game and my opinion changed.

In January, I wrote a post about what to look for when trading a Bayern game. So for me to bet (back) Guardiola's team this two point had to occur:
- The team creates danger in the opponent's area with several clear opportunities to score;
- The team prevents the opponent to organize attacks and to create clear chances to score.

Today it was the opposite of that. Bayern was playing a boring game with no ideas and no real chances to score, unlike Bochum that was playing very well in the counter-attack.
Thus, I accepted a great odd of 1.17 against Bayern.

Unfortunately for me, Bayern did score and I closed my bet with a loss around 7.5% of my stake. Before Bayern's goal, I was profiting around 14% of my stake.

So it was a bad trade? Let's do the maths:
1 - Bayern takes advantage: I lose 7.5% of my stake;
2 - I choose close my bet at half-time or whatever I think that Bayern is playing well: I profit at least 14% of my stake (worst case scenario), around 16.4% at half-time;
3 - Bayern conceded a goal: I profit, in the worst case scenario, 31% of my stake.

In my opinion, option 2 and 3 were the most likely to occur so I guess it was a good trade.

Man. City of Pep Guardiola (Preview)

One of the major topics of the moment in England. Frankly, I think next season we will have a fantastic Premier League if we have Guardiola and Klopp, Mourinho at Man. Utd. and another great coach at Chelsea (Diego Simeone or Antonio Conte are my preference).

Contrary to what I've read out there, I do not think the squad will suffer a revolution. I believe the changes will be in the defensive midfield/first phase of construction.
Since Guardiola's time at Barcelona that we know that the coach is not a fan of Yaya Toure's characteristics, so it is almost certain his departure. The remaining players Fernando, Fernandinho and Delph do not have the characteristics (creativity, decision and technique) to be successful in Pep's team ideas.

For me, the biggest headache will be getting a "Xabi Alonso/Busquets" to act as a defensive midfielder. I do not see any player in the short term that can satisfy all the coach's ideas (perhaps Julian Weigl of Dortmund in 1 or 2 years). Perhaps Marchisio would be a good idea but I do not think Juventus will give up the player.

Then a good deep-lying playmaker (or two) will also be very difficult to get because the best are already in big teams and they will not let them leave.
I'm talking about players like Iniesta, Modric, Isco (Zidane, thank you for not letting Isco in the bench), Thiago Alcântara.
In the long term: Sergi Roberto and Dele Alli.

I am really curious to see the squad next season because the market is increasingly competitive and I think it will be very difficult for Guardiola to put together a team in his own image in only one transfer window.

Regarding the attack front, I think the players that will improve a lot with Guardiola's coming will be Sterling and Agüero.

#‎Chelsea‬ ‎Chelsea‬ ‪#‎ManUtd‬ ‎ManUtd‬ ‪#‎ManchesterUnited ‎ManchesterUnited‬‬ ‪#‎PremierLeague‬ ‎PremierLeague‬ ‪#‎Arsenal‬ ‪‎Arsenal‬ #‎Trading‬ ‪‎Trading‬ #‎Betfair‬ ‪‎Betfair‬ #‎Trader‬ ‎Trader‬ ‪#‎Football‬ ‎Football‬ ‪#‎FootballAnalysis‬ ‪‎FootballAnalysis‬ #‎ManchesterCity‬ ‎ManchesterCity‬ ‪#‎ManCity‬ ‪‎ManCity‬ #‎PepGuardiola‬ ‎PepGuardiola‬ ‪#‎Guardiola‬ ‎Guardiola‬ ‪#‎Liverpool ‎Liverpool‬ #‎LaLiga‬ ‪‎LaLiga‬ #‎Bundesliga‬ ‎Bundesliga‬

Game: Chelsea vs Man. Utd.

The big game of the journey.
Looking at Chelsea side, I really don´t like seeing Mikel alongside Matic. It's against modern football playing with two players with low creativity, low technique in the first phase of construction.
I understand that Fabregas has a bad positioning in the defensive organization and this is more exposed with bigger teams but I don´t think this is the better solution.

Looking at Man. Utd. side, I would prefer Herrera instead of Mata. Nowadays it's difficult to play with a player with his characteristics without sacrificing a winger. I guess it was one of the reasons Mourinho didn´t need him at Chelsea.

Forward into the game, Man. Utd started well, imposing the game pace and playing in the Chelsea defensive midfield so I started betting against the blues.
At the 22/23th minute Man. Utd. slowed the pressure (maybe because they reached their average 3 shots per game and don´t want to screw that up, ehehe) and Chelsea "entered" the game, creating some scoring opportunities.

At this time, I was already profiting around 20% of my bet, so I closed it. From here the game was more balanced so I didn´t place more bets.
I was glad the final result wasn´t 0-0, this season we have assisted at a lot of boring games between the bigger teams. #‎Chelsea‬ ‎Chelsea‬ ‪#‎ManUtd‬ ‎ManUtd‬ ‪#‎ManchesterUnited ‎ManchesterUnited‬‬ ‪#‎PremierLeague‬ ‎PremierLeague‬ ‪#‎Arsenal‬ ‪‎Arsenal‬ #‎Trading‬ ‪‎Trading‬ #‎Betfair‬ ‪‎Betfair‬ #‎Trader‬ ‎Trader‬ ‪#‎Football‬ ‎Football‬ ‪#‎FootballAnalysis‬ ‪‎FootballAnalysis‬ #‎ManchesterCity‬ ‎ManchesterCity‬ ‪#‎ManCity‬ ‪‎ManCity‬ #‎PepGuardiola‬ ‎PepGuardiola‬ ‪#‎Guardiola‬ ‎Guardiola‬ ‪#‎Liverpool ‎Liverpool‬ #‎LaLiga‬ ‪‎LaLiga‬ #‎Bundesliga‬ ‎Bundesliga‬

Games: Napoli & Juventus

Two good games today at the same time. Sometimes, when the games do not seem difficult to analyze, I work both at the same time.
Departing for these games I thought the firsts against the last places would be easy money for me. It's the two best firepowers in Serie A.

As always, I let the games begin. Naturally Napoli and Juventus began dominating and quickly I accepted the odds of each team.
Time passed, the chances succeeded up one after another, as can be seen in the statistics of the first half, but unfortunately for me, the goal did not appear in any games.

At half-time, I close my bet with a loss between 8-10% in each game.
The teams went on to win with goals to appear only after 70 minutes but this is not a good time to back a team because each minute carries high losses.

There are days when the goal insists not enter :)

#‎Chelsea‬ ‎Chelsea‬ ‪#‎ManUtd‬ ‎ManUtd‬ ‪#‎ManchesterUnited ‎ManchesterUnited‬‬ ‪#‎PremierLeague‬ ‎PremierLeague‬ ‪#‎Arsenal‬ ‪‎Arsenal‬ #‎Trading‬ ‪‎Trading‬ #‎Betfair‬ ‪‎Betfair‬ #‎Trader‬ ‎Trader‬ ‪#‎Football‬ ‎Football‬ ‪#‎FootballAnalysis‬ ‪‎FootballAnalysis‬ #‎ManchesterCity‬ ‎ManchesterCity‬ ‪#‎ManCity‬ ‪‎ManCity‬ #‎PepGuardiola‬ ‎PepGuardiola‬ ‪#‎Guardiola‬ ‎Guardiola‬ ‪#‎Liverpool ‎Liverpool‬ #‎LaLiga‬ ‪‎LaLiga‬ #‎Bundesliga‬ ‎Bundesliga‬

Game: Napoli vs Empoli

Again a Napoli game! I try to work all the games of this team because they play a so fantastic football that is so easy to bet on them.
In this game, the team was at full strength so it gives me even more confidence. The flashscores site points to a 4-2-3-1 although it is more a 4-3-3 as in most games.

I chose this game on purpose. Napoli, as usual, went strong to create chances so I quickly went in their favor at a price of 1.36 / 1.37.
Around the 26/27 minute, I predicted that the price of Napoli would devalue in the next few minutes so I left the market to then get at a better price.
Luckily (also, the opposite happens sometimes ), the goal of Empoli appeared at that time.

I decided to analyse the game again. Napoli continued to create several goal opportunities and at this time, I had a strong conviction that the home side was dominating the game. It was a matter of time before the goals appear.
After the draw, I saw a good opportunity to enter in the Napoli market at a good price.

Moments later it was the 2-1 and I closed my bet in profit.
Note that even if I had been subject to the goal of Empoli, I would keep calm and then I would have reduced the loss (or even clean) doing a new game analysis.
The loss is part of trading. The most important thing is to have more success analysis than failure analysis.

#‎Chelsea‬ ‎Chelsea‬ ‪#‎ManUtd‬ ‎ManUtd‬ ‪#‎ManchesterUnited ‎ManchesterUnited‬‬ ‪#‎PremierLeague‬ ‎PremierLeague‬ ‪#‎Arsenal‬ ‪‎Arsenal‬ #‎Trading‬ ‪‎Trading‬ #‎Betfair‬ ‪‎Betfair‬ #‎Trader‬ ‎Trader‬ ‪#‎Football‬ ‎Football‬ ‪#‎FootballAnalysis‬ ‪‎FootballAnalysis‬ #‎ManchesterCity‬ ‎ManchesterCity‬ ‪#‎ManCity‬ ‪‎ManCity‬ #‎PepGuardiola‬ ‎PepGuardiola‬ ‪#‎Guardiola‬ ‎Guardiola‬ ‪#‎Liverpool ‎Liverpool‬ #‎LaLiga‬ ‪‎LaLiga‬ #‎Bundesliga‬ ‎Bundesliga‬

Barcelona and Bayern M. - The modern football

I didn´t do anything in this game. The odd was too low and Barcelona decided the game early. However, I watched the game as it is always a pleasure to see them play.

I have been paying particular attention to the three men in the midfield (thankfully Luis Enrique already left the idea of putting Sergi Roberto at right back!).
In this game, Barcelona abdicated of the common aggressive, physically powerful and game destroyer defensive midfielder (although I think Busquets is much more than that), and choose three creative midfielders: very strong on the offensive organization (creativity, decision and technique) and very smart on the defensive organization (positioning, concentration and anticipation).
These attributes are for me the most important of modern football midfielders. This is why so many English teams always have great difficulty in Europe competitions.

In my opinion, this is one of Klopp Liverpool's problems. Coutinho is the only player who fits these characteristics, which the coach gives great importance. This paradigm shift also occurs increasingly at Arsenal, although the team continues with consistency problems.

The question that remains is for the future of football. Are these the characteristics that also the center backs should have in the future? Should the center back do more than just destroy the game and defend? Should they give the team more solutions in the initial phase of construction?
Have Guardiola given in this game a little insight into how the teams will look like 10/20 years from now?

Here we shall see :)

#‎Chelsea‬ ‎Chelsea‬ ‪#‎ManUtd‬ ‎ManUtd‬ ‪#‎ManchesterUnited ‎ManchesterUnited‬‬ ‪#‎PremierLeague‬ ‎PremierLeague‬ ‪#‎Arsenal‬ ‪‎Arsenal‬ #‎Trading‬ ‪‎Trading‬ #‎Betfair‬ ‪‎Betfair‬ #‎Trader‬ ‎Trader‬ ‪#‎Football‬ ‎Football‬ ‪#‎FootballAnalysis‬ ‪‎FootballAnalysis‬ #‎ManchesterCity‬ ‎ManchesterCity‬ ‪#‎ManCity‬ ‪‎ManCity‬ #‎PepGuardiola‬ ‎PepGuardiola‬ ‪#‎Guardiola‬ ‎Guardiola‬ ‪#‎Liverpool ‎Liverpool‬ #‎LaLiga‬ ‪‎LaLiga‬ #‎Bundesliga‬ ‎Bundesliga‬

Game: Napoli vs Torino

Napoli has also been a good surprise this season. Left the annoying game of Benitez and hired this new coach (Maurizio Sarri) who perfected the defensive organization of the team and put them playing high-quality football.
In the midfield, I expected the three regular players: Jorginho, Allan and Hamsik, but the coach has chosen other two players who I never saw playing. Yet the main parts of the team were present so I figured it could make a good game.

Few minutes in the game and I was already backing Napoli. The team was playing a high-pressure football and Torino was reduced to their defensive midfield. The clear scoring opportunities succeeded one after the other, it was a matter of time before the goal arrived. This game is a perfect example of when you should back a team. At the 16th minute, Insigne scores a tremendous goal and I closed my position in profit.

If you haven´t watched the game, be sure to review the first few minutes until the goal of Napoli and see the spectacular offensive organization of the team in the first phase of construction. It is phenomenal. #‎Chelsea‬ ‎Chelsea‬ ‪#‎ManUtd‬ ‎ManUtd‬ ‪#‎ManchesterUnited ‎ManchesterUnited‬‬ ‪#‎PremierLeague‬ ‎PremierLeague‬ ‪#‎Arsenal‬ ‪‎Arsenal‬ #‎Trading‬ ‪‎Trading‬ #‎Betfair‬ ‪‎Betfair‬ #‎Trader‬ ‎Trader‬ ‪#‎Football‬ ‎Football‬ ‪#‎FootballAnalysis‬ ‪‎FootballAnalysis‬ #‎ManchesterCity‬ ‎ManchesterCity‬ ‪#‎ManCity‬ ‪‎ManCity‬ #‎PepGuardiola‬ ‎PepGuardiola‬ ‪#‎Guardiola‬ ‎Guardiola‬ ‪#‎Liverpool ‎Liverpool‬ #‎LaLiga‬ ‪‎LaLiga‬ #‎Bundesliga‬ ‎Bundesliga‬

Favorite teams to back this season

Honestly, this has not been an easy season to take positions in favor of the teams. We can start with the Premier League which has been very competitive, with smaller clubs playing very well. The main contenders for the title playing poorly, bad football quality, with few ideas and great insecurity.
This includes Chelsea, Man. Utd, Man. City and Liverpool, being the last two slightly better than the previous.
In other championships, I also highlight Real Madrid and Benfica complete disorganization of the team. Two teams who last season were playing quality football.

So this season comes down to the following teams:

Sevilha (at home):
I had placed a game of this team which I explained my particular taste for them. Season after season has been always a safe team with prices/odds very good and fairly easy to analyze.

Atl. Madrid:
Always reliable, although more at home than away. A team that when is playing well is very easy to back because of its defensive solidity and quick pressure on the ball.

Fiorentina:
This season's surprise. I quite like the work of Paulo Sousa putting this team playing as a "big club". Very attractive possession football which makes it quite easy to back the team when they are well in the game.

Arsenal:
Team with fantastic players but with many ups and downs. Arsenal for me has a very good characteristic: I realize with relative ease when they are near the goal and when they simply do not play anything. So it is included here in my favorite teams to analyze.

Bayern under Pep Guardiola

Recently I wrote a post about the factors that influence my decision-making during a football game. Contrary to what is believed, Bayern is not always an easy team to back. It is very easy to accumulate losses hoping that the goal appears. Their odds are so low that is, even more, difficult to choose the fair odd to back.

I had referred three points of high importance to back a team. However, in the particular case of Bayern Munich I do not pay attention to points 2 and 3 (see this post).
I do not give importance because these two points are part of the playstyle of this team and their coach. They are verified in every game, even if the team is not playing well, which can lead to a hasty decision.
For those who want to read more about Pep's playstyle there is an excellent article in spielverlagerung.com.

I took this picture of the site whoscored to show the characteristics of this team, with which I completely agree. The fact that Bayern plays with high lines makes the defense gets a little exposed when opposing teams that can pass their first phase of pressure with ease. And often it has to be the "fireman" Neuer to cut the ball almost like a Libero.

Therefore, the two factors that I consider the most important to back this team are:
- The team creates danger on the opponent's area with several clear opportunities to score;
- The team prevents the opponent to organize attacks and to create clear chances to score.

#‎Chelsea‬ ‎Chelsea‬ ‪#‎ManUtd‬ ‎ManUtd‬ ‪#‎ManchesterUnited ‎ManchesterUnited‬‬ ‪#‎PremierLeague‬ ‎PremierLeague‬ ‪#‎Arsenal‬ ‪‎Arsenal‬ #‎Trading‬ ‪‎Trading‬ #‎Betfair‬ ‪‎Betfair‬ #‎Trader‬ ‎Trader‬ ‪#‎Football‬ ‎Football‬ ‪#‎FootballAnalysis‬ ‪‎FootballAnalysis‬ #‎ManchesterCity‬ ‎ManchesterCity‬ ‪#‎ManCity‬ ‪‎ManCity‬ #‎PepGuardiola‬ ‎PepGuardiola‬ ‪#‎Guardiola‬ ‎Guardiola‬ ‪#‎Liverpool ‎Liverpool‬ #‎LaLiga‬ ‪‎LaLiga‬ #‎Bundesliga‬ ‎Bundesliga‬

Game: Atl. Madrid vs Levante

Atl. Madrid, one of my favorite teams. Their defensive solidity makes it so easy and safe to back them.
Looking at the starting 11 only one significant change, A. Correa instead of Carrasco, the later which has been good in late games. Still a safe initial eleven, with a strong midfield and intelligent players which this last is very important in modern football.
Frankly, a very weak opponent who I don´t think has the capability to avoid relegation.

The Atl. Madrid team begin as it normally does, with pressure on the ball, very strong on set pieces to create scoring opportunities. This team gives me enough confidence, so 6 minutes into the game I back Atl. Madrid. at 1.25.
Atl. continued to be the better team but slowed down a bit the pace of play around the 20th minute which made me close the position around 1.27 and wait for a more fair odd.
I waited for a better price and Atl. Madrid to create scoring opportunities again. I backed the team some minutes later at 1.32/1.33.

Unfortunately Atl. Madrid failed to reach the goal and I closed my bet at half-time with some loss, around 4/5% of my responsibility.

Game: Arsenal vs Newcastle

An Arsenal with many injuries. Still a good team that will play. Personally, I like when Cazorla plays Deep-Lying playmaker with Ramsey dropping more to the right because this gives more consistency to the midfield defensive organization than with two wingers as Walcott and Oxlade. Also, because Ozil does not seem to do these tasks. But I understand that right now there's no player with the characteristics of Cazorla.

Arsenal started well in the game with high pressure and a clear chance to score. Also there seemed to be plenty of space to play near the Newcastle area.
At that time the odd was 1.25. At a higher price maybe I had entered, but with a price so low I preferred to wait a little longer. For me to get such a low odd I must have a clear certainty that the team will score at any time.

Fortunately, I was correct not to enter. After the 12/15 minutes of the match, Arsenal's good start is over and Newcastle became the only team to search the goal with some real opportunities.
Although Newcastle was better, it is not a team that gives me the confidence to go for, so I ended up not taking any position.
To point out that even if he had entered in favor of Arsenal I would have come out at 12/15 minutes even though it was necessary to take a small loss.

Factors that influence the back or lay decision

My first few minutes of a game are always for analysis. I never enter a game with a fixed position or a fixed idea of ​​what I will do. I always wait for the opportunities.
Sometimes the goal appears early in the game or in the first attack of the team and there goes our chance, but I consider this analysis more favorable in the long run.

Before backing or laying a team the factors that i have into account, sorted by relevance, are:

- The team that is playing better creates danger on the opponent's area with clear opportunities to score (high importance);

- The team that is playing better is able to predict most of the moves and opponent's reactions, imposing high pressure, pressure over the ball and still imposing the game pace (high importance);

- The team that is playing better have a high quality of play and hit passes with fast progression in the field towards the opponent's area (high importance);

- Statistics is favorable to this team, more chances to score, more shots and high ball possession (average size);

- The team that is playing worse is unable to organize attacks and to create goal oportunities (average size);

- The team that is paying better comes from a positive series of games and is moralized (low importance);

- The odd of the team that is paying better is "stagnant/standing" and does not appear to devalue in the next minutes (low importance);

- The team that is paying better is playing at home (low importance).

For now these are the factors that i remember. Not to say that during the game, I assign relevance to all the factors described above to take a stand. There are teams that I know quite well and they give me more security allowing me to disregard some of them. However, there are also teams that are an exception to the rule like Bayern under the leadership of Pep Guardiola to which I do not give much importance to some of the points I scored with high importance because they are part of this team style of play.

Then I will make a post talking about this team.

Game: Sevilha - Espanyol

Sevilla is a team that i know relatively well and that usually give me enough joys (€€€!) when playing in their own stadium. Fairly organized set, high pressure, strong transitions and creates scoring opportunities with relative ease.

Before the game starts i gave a quick view of the teams in flashscores. In tactical terms the Sevilla 4-2-3-1 against another 4-2-3-1 does not make me anticipate a possible tactical superiority. In the Sevilla side i noticed Cristoforo next to Iborra, a player that i honestly do not know. I would rather have N'Zonzi or Krohn-Dehli playing this position.
Immobile instead of Kevin Gameiro in the attack, which for me has not a negative impact on the team. So in terms of the starting eleven i was comfortable.

Not surprisingly at home, Sevilla started well winning most of the balls, having good circulation and creating clear situations of goal.
After two clear situations of goal, around the 10th minute, I decided to back Sevilha at a price/odd around 1.51. A few minutes later, Immobile decides to open the score and i close my bet in profit.

Introduction

Hi,

First of all welcome to Game Analysis by a Trader.

I am a football fan, trader at football markets in the free time and lately, I've become a fan of tactical analysis in an attempt to improve my decisions in backing or laying a team.

With the blog, i intend to share what led me to back or lay a team, which was my analysis at some point of the game and the reason of the decision.I can still share some ideas or information i have read in other blogs that led me to take some positions.

I do not intend to share all the games that i do, only those i think that add value.I do not intend to talk about the technical aspects of trading, which i also do, because there are already very good blogs and pages on this topic.

I do not have any degree in sports and i don´t daily work with any football club, so you should not expect the information to be placed is an absolute true or professional.

They are just my ideas and opinions and you are welcome to discuss them.

Let's go then!