Euro 2016: Hungary vs Belgium

Hungary: One of the surprises in this Euro 2016. They play good football and seem to quite easily score goals  due to having multiple players with a good shot.
Belgium: As was already mentioned in other blog posts I think the coach did well to take Fellaini out of the team and add creativity to the center and speed in the wings.

I do not expect an easy victory by Belgium and I even believed that Hungary could make a surprise in this game.

In my opinion, Belgium entered very well in the game creating goal opportunities. As Hungary is not a strong team doing the "Park the Bus" there was too much space for the Belgians to play.

Few minutes from the start of the game and I started to bet in favor of Belgium.
I was still putting money on the market and Toby scores the goal. I closed my bet with a profit of around 35%.

Finally, an "easy game" to catch the goal :)

Euro 2016: France & Germany

Today a post slightly different due to the lack of possibilities for game analysis entries because of earlier goals in the games.

France vs Ireland: Ireland scored very early, and France was almost the entire first half sleeping. I do not consider the best time to make long entries based on game analysis, when is a favorite team losing, because the price tends to devalue very fast.

Germany vs Slovakia: Wanted to wait a bit and confirm the superiority of Germany with goal opportunities. Did not go well, the Germans scored relatively early. I had the money to go after the corner that gave the goal Boateng,

Not a very profitable Euro for me in this kind of entries, the goals or arrive early or tend to not appear.
It could be worse if I was not profiting :)

Euro 2016: Northern Ireland vs Germany

Little or nothing to say. Germany together with Spain is quite ahead of other teams, both tactically and collectively.
Any team out of the top teams can hardly defeat Germany.

As soon as the game started I realized the supremacy of Germany and began to bet in favor of them. It was a matter of time before the goal appears.
The supremacy of Germany was so remarkable that Toni Kroos alone completed more passes than all Northern Ireland players together. The Germans ended up with 79% of ball possession!

Not that it was needed but I also leave the graph of the BN formula to demonstrate the analysis.
I closed my bet after the goal with a profit around 20% of the amount risked.

Euro 2016: Slovakia vs England

England: In front of the defense the only player that I would change is Vardy by Rooney. For me, this was the lineup and strongest England team. For this, and perhaps unlike the rest of the people, I had confidence that this would be a game well done by the British.
Slovakia: A good surprise in this competition with a quality football and a Hamsik in a huge form playing like a Slovenian "Iniesta".

I saw the first two games of Slovakia and as mentioned above they had a quality football so I expect a difficult game to analyze.

I've been watching the game for 12 minutes. At that point, the British team had already created some goal opportunities and seemed to have the control of the game. As I predicted this England midfield seems to work much better than the last. I bet in favor of England in an odd around 1.8.
I removed the bet sometimes between the 20 and 32 minute as England seemed no longer to be so good during that period, as it could be confirmed by BetNoty graph stagnation.

From the 32nd minute, England improved again and I kept my bet until halftime.
Although the British had dominated the game from there, as can be seen in the graph (print at halftime), the goal did not come.

As the odd did not devalue, because of the supremacy of the British in the first half, I closed my bet at halftime without any loss

Euro 2016: Belgium vs Ireland

Belgium: In this game Belgium's coach opted for what I have beeing telling here on the blog. Against inferior teams, you can abdicate of a midfield player for a more creative/offensive one. Totally agree with the placement of the defensive midfielder Dembele and Witsel at position 8 with De Bruyne in the middle and Carrasco as a winger.
Ireland: I don´t know well the team, I know that they will choose to defend deep and try to play on the counterattack.

Belgium took long to convince me. Only around the 15th minute I began to bet in favor of the Belgians on an odd of 1.89. My confidence was not much and I did not think that Belgium was creating many opportunities but I consider these three factors:
1 - Ireland did not create danger in the area of ​​Belgium;
2 - In my opinion, the odd of Belgium was too high.
3 - Belgium has players who can reach the goal of nowhere, with an individual move or a moment of inspiration (Hazard and De Bruyne mostly).

To my misfortune, I closed my bet at the break with a loss of around 4.3%. Misfortune since Belgium opened the scoring early in the 2nd half.

Euro 2016: Spain vs Turkey

Spain: All normal without any casualties. Against Turkey, it can justify two-game organizers. To highlight the huge form of Iniesta!
Turkey: Some good individuals but sincerely little collective game. After the game with Croatia seemed to me that is a team with little potential to qualify.

Given the weak performance of Turkey and the momentum of Spain, especially the good form of Iniesta, I expect a natural victory of Spain.

Spain came in strong and after 10 minutes had already sufficient indicators for me to bet in favor of Spain. Although there was a period where the Spanish lowered the pace of the game I kept my bet until the goal of Morata at the 34th minute.

I closed the bet with profit around 28%.

Finally, I caught my first goal based on game analysis in this Euro, which began very "warm" but now seems to be improving.

Euro 2016: Spain vs Czech Republic

Spain: Lineup inside normal. Spain seems to play a little below normal. As I mentioned in France game I think that Spain against weaker teams, who tend to defend behind the midfield line, could give up one of the men in the midfield (Busquets takes them all!). In this case, my choice could be to leave David Silva free in the middle and exchange Fàbregas by Pedro to play on one of the wings.

Czech Republic: I do not know many of the players. I know it's one of the teams with older players and with few stars to make a good Euro.

Having said that I expected a natural victory of Spain.

The Czech Republic entered the game strong which was good because it made the odd Spain adjust for a better price.

By the time that Spain started to dominate the game, around the 20th minute, I bet in favor of them until around 60 minutes into the game. Spain supremacy was clear as we can see in BetNoty.

Yet was not this time that I profited. I closed my bet with a loss of around 5% around the 60th minute.

Euro 2016: Poland vs Nothern Ireland

Poland: Lineup inside normal, faithful to his system and aware of their capabilities. Overall a good team that captured the attention of qualifying stages for having the best record of goals scored.
Northern Ireland: I do not know most of their players, in my opinion, a team still far from able to compete with the other teams in the competition. One of the underdogs in my opinion.
I think that an odd of 1.8 for Poland is too high.

As I expected, 5 minutes into the game and Poland have already confirmed their supremacy. I passed all of the first half betting in favour of Poland.
North Ireland did not make a shot during the first 45 minutes. The BetNoty chart below can confirm the supremacy of Poland.

Unfortunately, Poland did not manage to score and I closed my bet at half time with a loss of around 2,44%. A small loss because the Poland's odd did not deviate much from the initial price due to the inefficiency of the Northern Ireland team.

Euro 2016: England vs Russia

Although Russia is the main opponent of England, this was a game that I believed the victory of the English team would come up with ease. However looking at the starting eleven and the positions of the players I had doubts that a 4-3-3 will work best for England. This team is not used to play with this system, much less with Rooney in "8" position. The only player called that for me could do this position was Wilshere who probably is still far from his best.

England came strong in the game and although their football does not convince me I bet on them at around 11/12 minutes. Who helped this decision was more Russia than the English team. Russia defences gave a huge space in front of them and the team almost abdicated to attack.

Another favourable indicator was the BN formula of BetNoty that was almost 20 at the 12th minute, as I show in the image below.

Unfortunately, the goal did not come until the interval, a little due to the lack of England ideas than the merit of Russia team. I closed my bet at half time with no loss. Russia practically has abdicated to attack in the first half what caused the odd of England to not deviate much from the original price.

In my opinion, it would be worthwhile to consider another game system for England because I do not believe that this 4-3-3 can lead them very far in the competition.

Euro 2016: France vs Romania

Before the game, a took I look at the initial teams and France looked to me the best possible team to this game.
My idea started to change as the game begins. The France midfielders are with no doubt very strong relating to aerial and individual duels but it is, in my opinion, a good midfield to play against stronger international teams.
What happened in the first half was that France had a lot of problems in the first phase of construction. It was notable some disorganisation and few ideas to reach the opponent's area for neither Kante or Matuidi or Pogba are very creative players (Not wanting to take merit to the good defensive organization that Romania has shown).

The only time that France managed to reach the opponent's goal was through Payet.
In my opinion, against inferior teams, France may give up one of the men in the midfield in order to bring more creativity to the team. My options would be to change Matuidi for a player like Cabaye, or step back Payet and put Coman or Martial as a winger.

Because of what I explained above, France never gave me the confidence to bet in favour of them. During the first part I might even decide to bet against France, but in these tournaments, I prefer not to risk too much in the first games. I like to see the group stage first to realise the form of each team and then in later stages I can think of more risky bets.

Honestly, I was a little disappointed with France, I think if they do not improve they will hardly manage to win the Euro 2016.