Euro 2016: Poland vs Nothern Ireland

Poland: Lineup inside normal, faithful to his system and aware of their capabilities. Overall a good team that captured the attention of qualifying stages for having the best record of goals scored.
Northern Ireland: I do not know most of their players, in my opinion, a team still far from able to compete with the other teams in the competition. One of the underdogs in my opinion.
I think that an odd of 1.8 for Poland is too high.

As I expected, 5 minutes into the game and Poland have already confirmed their supremacy. I passed all of the first half betting in favour of Poland.
North Ireland did not make a shot during the first 45 minutes. The BetNoty chart below can confirm the supremacy of Poland.

Unfortunately, Poland did not manage to score and I closed my bet at half time with a loss of around 2,44%. A small loss because the Poland's odd did not deviate much from the initial price due to the inefficiency of the Northern Ireland team.

Euro 2016: England vs Russia

Although Russia is the main opponent of England, this was a game that I believed the victory of the English team would come up with ease. However looking at the starting eleven and the positions of the players I had doubts that a 4-3-3 will work best for England. This team is not used to play with this system, much less with Rooney in "8" position. The only player called that for me could do this position was Wilshere who probably is still far from his best.

England came strong in the game and although their football does not convince me I bet on them at around 11/12 minutes. Who helped this decision was more Russia than the English team. Russia defences gave a huge space in front of them and the team almost abdicated to attack.

Another favourable indicator was the BN formula of BetNoty that was almost 20 at the 12th minute, as I show in the image below.

Unfortunately, the goal did not come until the interval, a little due to the lack of England ideas than the merit of Russia team. I closed my bet at half time with no loss. Russia practically has abdicated to attack in the first half what caused the odd of England to not deviate much from the original price.

In my opinion, it would be worthwhile to consider another game system for England because I do not believe that this 4-3-3 can lead them very far in the competition.

Euro 2016: France vs Romania

Before the game, a took I look at the initial teams and France looked to me the best possible team to this game.
My idea started to change as the game begins. The France midfielders are with no doubt very strong relating to aerial and individual duels but it is, in my opinion, a good midfield to play against stronger international teams.
What happened in the first half was that France had a lot of problems in the first phase of construction. It was notable some disorganisation and few ideas to reach the opponent's area for neither Kante or Matuidi or Pogba are very creative players (Not wanting to take merit to the good defensive organization that Romania has shown).

The only time that France managed to reach the opponent's goal was through Payet.
In my opinion, against inferior teams, France may give up one of the men in the midfield in order to bring more creativity to the team. My options would be to change Matuidi for a player like Cabaye, or step back Payet and put Coman or Martial as a winger.

Because of what I explained above, France never gave me the confidence to bet in favour of them. During the first part I might even decide to bet against France, but in these tournaments, I prefer not to risk too much in the first games. I like to see the group stage first to realise the form of each team and then in later stages I can think of more risky bets.

Honestly, I was a little disappointed with France, I think if they do not improve they will hardly manage to win the Euro 2016.

Trading Live using BetNoty

Lately, I've been using a software, that goes by the name of BetNoty, to help me analyse the football live match and support my bet decisions.
Sometimes I even use it to do blind trading (no game images).
I'm gonna use the Europa League final as example.

I was expecting a stronger midfield from Liverpool team and not two forwards. Although Sevilla is not very well this season their team is very solid and very good in counter-attack so I wasn´t expecting that Liverpool could sustain Sevilla's counters with just Can and Milner as we would see later in the second half.

"Formula BN" is, in my opinion, the best tool of BetNoty. It represents what's happening in the game and what team is better playing. In my experience using it, a BN minimum value of 10 it's a good indicator to bet on a team. Around minute 28th my game analysis was in favour of Liverpool and as you can see in the graph the BN value was above 10 (around 13) so I backed Liverpool.
Minutes later I profited with Sturridge goal. The image was by the half-time and as you can see the BN value was 33.75 wich indicates a lot of supremacy from Liverpool.

Second half followed.

Sevilla entered very strong in the second half. After 10 minutes, as you can see in the image the BN value decreases a lot, 33,75 to 18.25, a moment before the Sevilla's goal. During that period, I bet in Draw market using my game analysis combined with BetNoty's indication.
After Sevilla's goal, I closed my bet in profit.
Another way of viewing a team supremacy in that moment of the game is to filter for the values of the last 10 minutes as I show in the image below.

This filter is very useful to preview if the price will devalue in the next moments too. For example, now Sevilla has a BN value of 14,75, so another choice instead of betting in the draw or in Sevilla could be trading the Liverpool's market taking advantage of the devalue of their price/odd (when it was 1-1).

Of course, the BN value is not always right when it comes to bet on a team because we're talking about football and everything can happen, but sure is a great complement to match live analysis.
The rest of the software is really good to punters and live swing-traders having a lot of filters and good tools to help choose the best bets.

Game: Tottenham vs Arsenal

The team that plays the best football in Premier League against the one who used to play. Don´t know what's going on with Arsenal but it hasn´t  been the same team in the last few games. I understand their defensive position against Barcelona, but not in Old Trafford.
The team has abdicated of their possession and offensive football which lies deep in the team ideas. This was a great opportunity for Arsenal to be champions but their attitude doesn't demonstrate the will.
Is Wenger trying to imitate Mourinho last end of the season approach? :)

Tottenham started very well playing "like a champion".  The team dominated Arsenal in their half. The ball recovery was so fast and efficient that Arsenal can not even fight back in the counter-attack.
After some goal opportunities, I started betting in Tottenham around 2.32.

For the next 35 minutes, Tottenham created a lot of opportunities to score. During the time of 35' to 39', I was evaluating closing my bet because Tottenham was reducing the game pace which could lead to better counter-attacks from Arsenal. But unfortunately for me, I wasn´t fast enough and Ramsey did score (my condolences to the next celebrity :)).
It wasn´t fair for Tottenham and for me but I had to close my bet with a loss around 55% of my responsibility.

I sit back and watched the game. At the 55th minute, Coquelin receives the red card and I get a good price when the market reopens at 4.9.
I was a good price because then it went to 4.4/4.5 so I had some time until my bet devalues.
Tottenham reacted very well to the red card and the price lowered even more so I was comfortable. Fortunately, for me, I didn´t have to wait much time for the draw.

After Tottenham's goal, I closed my bet and reduced my loss from 55% to 19%.
You can say that I should have waited a little more for Kane's goal but at that time the price would devalue fast and in the long run, I don´t think it would happen two goals so fast so often in a game.

Tottenham is not one of my favorites teams to bet because despite their great football they start in disadvantage many times which leads to early bet losses.

Game: Wolfsburg vs Bayern M.

Looking at Wolfsburg my first impression was of a really defensive first team. Makes me miss the last season great team.
So, Marcel Schafer, a defensive player playing as left winger or something like it. Usually, it doesn´t go well when the coach changes the team ideas "inventing" with the tactics.
So my pré-live idea was that Bayern would dominate the game as the home team were not shaped to do much danger.

As I already explained in a previous post, I look at very specific points when trading Bayern Munich. This game was a perfect example of when I bet on them.
Bayern started with high lines, possession as normal, but the difference here were two things:
1 - The ball was easily reaching the wingers and they were with lots of space to face the defender and make crossings. This is very dangerous because Bayern usually puts a lot of players in the area.
2- The passes were entering very well in behind Wolfsburg defence.

Because of this Bayern created several opportunities to score and early in the game I bet at an odd around 1.43.
I guessed it was a matter of time before the goal appears but all was against, even the crossbar was in their way.
Later in the first half, Wolfsburg started to create chances to score. It was a surprise to me that with so few offensive players they could do it but the danger was clear so I close my bet with some loss, around 2%.

I didn´t put more bets in this game I just watched the second half. It's a shame Ribery was injured some much time because it is clear that the team define much better the attacks when he is on the field.

Game: Arsenal vs Leicester

Today's first big game. Arsenal playing with a good first team, not my favourite but still good. Leicester at full strength.
I was expecting a possession football from Arsenal and a Leicester playing in the counter-attack as normal.

My trading positions in this game were dependent if Leicester would be capable of creating scoring chances and Arsenal ability to avoid it and to impose their game on the opposition's half.

Arsenal started well, creating goal opportunities pushing Leicester into their half. So I took a price around 1.68 for Arsenal.
I guess it was very important for the home team to score early in the game because it was the best position to manage the game against a team with the characteristics of Leicester (Wenger must have seen their game against Man. City :))

At the 16th minute, Jamie Vardy almost scored and Arsenal was starting to slow down the pace so I started closing my positions in their favor.
In the next minutes, the game begins to be more favourable for Leicester counters as they seem to have shut down the imposing game of Arsenal.
Thus, I started betting against Arsenal. Close to half-time Vardy scored and I closed my bet in profit.
Now Arsenal had put themselves in the worst possible situation against a team like Leicester.

But...more was to come. Again, Arsenal started very well in the 2nd half so I bet again in Arsenal around 4.8. I was not going to take a long position because the price would devalue minutes later in the game. I was just looking for Arsenal's goal early in the 2nd half.
The goal doesn´t appear but the red card for Danny Simpson did. The price of Arsenal got down a lot so now I had plenty of time to get a goal from the home team before closing my bet with no loss.
The draw came in around the 70th minute but I was not complete satisfied so I just partially closed my bet leaving more money in Arsenal's win.

From here it was a massacre from Arsenal. I had to wait until the last second but the profit was worth the risk.